NFL Week 1 Picks

My usual rule of thumb is to never bet on the first week of the season. One reason is because I like to get a feel for the season before I start making friendly wagers on the season. The second reason is because this is Vegas’ week. Besides the Super Bowl, the first week is the most betted week. NCAA was an appetizer last week. Now here is the main course for all the football junkies that have had the itch since training camp and Vegas knows it. The lines will be tight enough that you will convince yourself on underdogs that you would never take in week 8. They will be tasty enough that you will be thinking “Maybe this is a good three-team-teaser?” Even though you know a three-team-teaser is like walking into the Thunderdome. But the time has come to pick the winners and losers. The wills and the won’ts. The Johnny Depp’s and the Corey Haim’s. Winners are in bold.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4)

This is a tough game to pick. On one hand the Giants had to completely retool their defense and have Eli “Did I really win the Super Bowl” Manning. On the other hand the Redskins never had a defense and have Jason Cambell. I expect the Giants to win outright. I just don’t know about the spread. The game is going to be close. But I’m taking the Giants -4 at home because of their special teams. I think they are going to get good field position on the Redskins and get a lot of field goals as a result.

Cincinnati Bungals at Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)

I have a feeling I’m going to be kicking myself for picking the Ravens. But I just can’t pick the Bungals. Getting rid of Rudi Johnson was as big as a mistake as keeping Chad Ocho Cinco. Now the Bungals have no running game and their best receiver, T.J., is going to be doubled all day. The Ravens have a mediocre running game at best but the Bungals have zero on defense. I really don’t like the Ravens’ defense this year either. But I’m picking the Ravens this week because: A) The Bungals O-line is awful and B) The Ravens’ defense will activate the hit stick button because Ocho Cinco is still talking like he is going to Canton.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3)

The Dolphins are only getting 3 points?! J…E…T…S…Jets Jets Jets! Vegas is banking on people who trust “the experts” that Chad Pennington will make a difference in Miami. You could put Tom Brady or Payton Manning on the Dolphins and maybe the Dolphins would go .500. They still don’t have a defense, still don’t have a good running back, still don’t have a good quarterback, still don’t have an O-line and still only have one wide receiver that can catch the ball. Take the Jets and don’t convince yourself that Dolphins can keep it close.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-16)

16 points is a huge spread considering it is only week one and Tom Brady hasn’t taken a snap yet. You just have to tell yourself that it is the Chiefs and they probably won’t score against the Pats. Even without Tom Brady the Pats can score 21 points on the Chiefs while the Chiefs will be lucky to score a field goal.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

This is another tough game to pick. I think the Steelers will win but it is a high spread against the Texans. The Steelers have a bad to terrible offensive line. If Mario Williams can create pressure off the end it is going to be a long painful day for Big Ben. The Steelers defense isn’t as good as in years past but they still play physical. I think their physical defensive style will be enough to offset their lack of talent and depth. Long story short…stay away from this game. 6.5 is a lot of points to give to a team that is so unpredictable like the Texans.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+3)

A lot of people are high on the Jaguars this year but I just don’t see it. What happened to Richard Collier should have never happened but it did. The Jags now have two tackles and their center unavailable for this game. This means three backups will now have to block Jevon Kearse, Tony Brown, Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Garrard better have his running shoes on because the pressure is coming. The Titans don’t need the points and will win this game outright.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+3)

This is another “We hope people will be dumb enough to take the points” Vegas line. This game will not even be close. Kitna is going to throw all over the weak Falcons’ secondary. Rudi Johnson is playing for his luggage. And I’m telling you the Lions’ defense will be a surprise this year. They got what they were missing in a #3 cornerback in Leigh Bodden from the Browns. The only way the Falcons keep this close is if Michael Turner proves he is the real deal and rushes for 200 yards. Matt Ryan showed in the preseason that he can’t carry the load. This game is just the start of the Falcons dreadful season.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (-1)

I don’t know why Vegas wasted its time in making the Bills a one point favorite. This should be a pick-em game. Either way I’m picking the Bills. The Seahawks are the living dead. Bobby Engram is not playing and Deion Branch might not be playing. So who is Matt Hasselbeck—correction, Hasselborg—going to count on to catch the ball? That is if Hasselborg can survive a full game. Maurice Morris should not be a starting running back in this league. And their best defensive player, Lofa Tatupu, is a game-time decision. Last year I may have picked the Seahawks but this is their year like it is Motley Crue’s.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

I like Tampa Bay and I like New Orleans. But I’m going with the hurricane factor in this game. Not Gustav; I’m talking about former Miami Hurricane Jeremy Shockey. In the past 5 years the tight end position has become the most valuable position on offense. Shockey is hybrid of Ricky Dudley and Mike Ditka. He catches everything and punishes defenders on blocks. Tampa Bay has a good defense but not enough to overcome the Saints offense. The Saints defense plays a “bend but don’t break” style of defense. This will match up well against a team that struggles to get in the end zone against any team.

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)

I know I said the Eagles suck at home. Their defense is nothing to look at. And that this will be McNabb’s last year as an Eagle. But come on, they’re playing the Rams. The Eagles should run away with this game and I hope they do. I want every announcer to go nuts this first week over the Eagles saying, “See! I told you! The Eagles are for real and are Super Bowl contenders!” It will make the following weeks that much sweeter to watch the Eagles collapse starting week two against Dallas. Also I can’t wait for the Eagles to trade Lito Sheppard for some bum wide receiver to offset the injuries to Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown. Trust me it is going to be good…unless you are an Eagles fan.

Dallas at Cleveland (+5.5)

I really hope I am wrong on this game because it kills me to pick against the Browns. I’m still going to root for them but I just don’t think this is their week. The Browns need Josh Cribbs on the field to have a chance at this game. Without Cribbs’ ability to neutralize the performance of the defense; it is going to be a long night for the Browns. Sean Jones and Brodney Pool are both game time decisions. This is really bad news Browns if they don’t play. Jamal Lewis is another game time decision. And God knows what DA is going to show up. I want to be wrong so bad on this game that I’m praying Big Dawg takes one for the team and decapitates TO if he jumps in the Dawg Pound. But I got a full prescription of Xanax and a bottle of Jameson ready for Sunday afternoon just in case.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-9)

If you are looking for a “two team teaser”, this is it. Take the Chargers -15 and the Eagles -.5. I can’t believe this line is only 9. The Chargers are going to flat out punish the Panthers on both sides of the ball. I really don’t know how Vegas can honestly think that either: A) Carolina is worse than St. Louis or B) Philadelphia is almost as good as San Diego. This is my guarantee pick of the week. There is no way the Panthers are staying within ten points of the Chargers.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco (+2.5)

I really like this line. If San Francisco was at +3.5 or higher…I wouldn’t touch this game with John Meyer’s penis. Because it is time for Arizona to prove they can win the NFC West and San Francisco’s time to show the rebuilding phase is working. But this game got me thinking; why does Vegas make 2.5 and 1 point lines? How many times does a team win by two or one? Because if you are taking the 49ers in this game, you’re basically betting that they win outright. Since I don’t see the 49ers winning this game outright I’m going with the Cardinals.

Sunday Night Game

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)

Let’s see the Colts are at home. Judge Manning is healthy. The wide receivers are healthy. The defense is healthy. The Bears stink. So why are the Bears only getting 9.5 points and the Chiefs are 16? I know the Colts center Jeff Saturday is hurt but really? The Bears are only getting 9.5? They should be getting at least 13.5. Maybe Vegas is thinking that the game will be out of reach by halftime and the Colts will rest Manning in the second half. Even if they do I can’t imagine the Bears scoring 10 points on the Colts defense. The only reason why I’m not guarantying this game is because of the Bears special teams. Maybe they can keep them in this game. But that is a huge maybe.

Monday Night Games

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay (-2.5)

I really think the Packers are in trouble this game. I didn’t think Aaron Rodgers looked comfortable in the preseason. He held onto the ball and felt a lot a pressure. I don’t see things getting better for him this week against the Vikings. The Packers are going to be without their starting right guard, center, left tackle and running back Ryan Grant. They are also going to be without A.J Hawk, Atari Bigby and Charlie Peprah on defense. This is not good news for a team that was banking on their defense to carry them. AP is going to be putting up huge runs without Hawk waiting for him when he gets into the open field.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+3)

This is a huge test for my Raider playoff prediction. I think they can get it done because of two things. The Broncos defense hasn’t been this weak in years and Jay “Don’t call me Elway” Cutler will throw at least one pick. That’s one too many against the Raiders’ defense. It is going to be hard for the Broncos to establish the run because they don’t have the hogs like they used to either. The only way I see the Raiders losing this game is if the Raiders need JaMarcus Russell to come from behind to win. Even then the Raiders should cover.