Tuesday, September 2, 2008

NFL Preseason Rankings Part 1: 32-15

Nearly every morning I listen to the Adam Carolla Radio Show. I have this luxury because I graduated and don’t have a job yet. One of the best segments of the radio show is when Adam Carolla breaks down what he calls Basic Cable Classics. These are movies that are so bad that you can’t pass up when you come across them on cable. I bring up Basic Cable Classics because when I was thinking of ways to introduce my preseason predictions, I could think of no better way than to breakdown teams according to the taglines of some of my own personal favorite Basic Cable Classics.

The Story Continues…—The Karate Kid Part II

The Karate Kid Part II picks up where The Karate Kid left off. Daniel-Son is heading to Japan with Mr. Miyagi to see his dying father. I don’t know how Mr. Miyagi’s father was still alive but these teams aren’t.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Only one team can be the worst in the NFL and the Chiefs are going to make sure no one takes that away from them. I really only think they have two winnable games this year; Week 3 at Atlanta and Week 16 at home against Miami. Every other week they will be double digit underdogs. Tony Gonzalez will be catching passes from a Tim Couch impersonator named Brodie Croyle. LJ is coming off foot surgery and turning the magical downhill running back age of 30. I’m not even sure they play with an offense line. A team once known for their defense now has a rookie DE as their premier player. Mr. Miyagi says “early retirement” for Glenn Dorsey as long as he stays on the Chiefs.

31. Atlanta Falcons

I like the addition of Michael Turner. Always thought he was good when he played for Northern Illinois and was underrated at San Diego playing the Courtney Cox to LDT’s Jennifer Aniston (side note* Chris Berman got some news for you, the nickname “LT” was taken twenty years ago. Maybe the next one you’ll “creatively come up with out of nowhere” might be “Broadway Joe” or “Ed Too Tall”). But even with a weak schedule, the Falcons are three years away from a winning season. Matt Ryan isn’t going to get a lot blocking upfront because the Falcons were banking long term on not having a pocket passer. And the only bright spots in the defense are going to be a double-teamed John Abraham and an aging Lawyer Milloy.

30. Miami Dolphins

Good news is that the Dolphins will not be the worst team in the NFL this year. Bad news is that they will still be dead last in the AFC East. Ricky “The Passive Warrior” Williams will probably see a lot of action with Ronnie Brown out and that’s not good. Oh yeah spoiler alert; Chad Pennington is not good. He wasn’t good before he ruined his shoulder and wasn’t good after. Chad Henne will be taking snaps after they lose their first five games and Chad Pennington has a higher medical insurance co-pay than Mick Foley.

29. Cincinnati Bengals

Wait for it…Wait for it…Wait for it…Ladies and gentlemen…the Bungals! You have got to be kidding me Cincinnati. It’s like after the ’05 season the Bengals said “We got to do something about this ‘winning’ thing and get back to losing before we forget how”. They started with the garage sale of their offensive and defensive line in ‘06. Then they got rid of the secondary and swapped out some linebackers in ‘07. But they truly saved the best for ‘08; not trading Chad Johnson (who now has a torn labrum), picking up a suspended Chris Henry (who they kicked off the team last year) and for the finale they cut Rudi Johnson for…CHRIS HENRY! Wow. The “back alley abortion” known as the Bungals are back and they are ready to depress.

28. Baltimore Ravens

Only one team needs to fear the Ravens defense; the Ravens offense. Willis McGahee is a decent running back but he is no Barry Sanders and can’t carry a crappy team with no quarterback or wide receivers to the playoffs; let alone a winning record. And the defense is aging rapidly. They can’t spend 40 minutes on the field anymore. It is just too much to ask. They’ve been aging in dog years because of the Ravens inability to hold onto the ball. If I’m Ravens’ head coach John Harbaugh, first, I’m moving Ray Lewis’s locker next to Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Joe Flacco, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. Second, I’m strategically placing all sharp objects near Ray Lewis. Third, I’m telling Ray-Ray, “If you ever ‘allegedly’ do something again, the bleach is under the sink”.

27. Carolina Panthers

I bet Jake Delhomme and Chad Pennington are good friends. They both start out the season playing average at best. Then they will have a monster game, followed by a Ryan Leaf game, return to average, back to Ryan Leaf, then Vinny Testaverde hops off his rascal and out performs them for 8 weeks. Translation: a soul crushing QB (Delhomme and Pennington) that you can’t get rid of and 4 to 7 wins. They got rid of DeShaun Foster and are banking on a severely undersized DeAngelo Williams to carry the load. So I’m betting the Panthers are going to be closer to the 4 than the 7.

26. San Francisco 49ers

I like Vernon Davis, Isaac Bruce, Frank Gore/DeShaun Foster and J.T. O’Sullivan. But I don’t like their defense and their schedule. Nate Clements and Walt Harris can guard the deep ball threat but they only got one decent linebacker in Manny Lawson. Their defensive line is just flat out bad. Not having linebackers and a d-line is bad when you run a 3-4 defense against mainly west coast offenses. They just don’t have the fire power like the Browns had last year to out score teams. So for at least this season, it is back to the dojo for the 49ers.

Do You Remember…The Future?—Back to the Future Part II

Back to the Future Part II was great because they travel to 2015 (which looks like 1985 on steroids) then they have to travel back to 1955 in order to correct the present. Every team in this tier had promising futures until Biff got a hold of the sports book.

25. Houston Texans

Remember Joey Harrington? Well if you blocked that from your memory prepare to block out Matt Schaub. The only difference is that Schaub has Andre Johnson but not much else. Ahman “I’m hurt again” Green is not the answer at running back. Mario Williams might be the answer but he can’t play in the secondary and on the line. Their schedule is not going to be fun either playing in the toughest division in the NFL. But they are in this tier because every year they win three games they shouldn’t and play the Ravens, Dolphins and Bungals at home.

24. St. Louis Rams

The Rams bought a DeLorean three years ago but couldn’t figure out how to work the flux capacitor. Turns out that was a problem. They messed up big time not retooling three years ago. Marc Bulger manages games but doesn’t win them. When he doesn’t have a line, 3 All-Pro WRs, an All-Pro running back and a lighting fast defense; he’s not that good. But the biggest mistake the Rams made was not keeping up with the defense. Last year when the offense caught the black plague it really showed. And unless I accidently ate mushrooms, I’m seeing Trent Green at the #2 QB followed by Bruce Gradkowski and Brock Berlin. Great Scott!

23. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rogers is no Michael J. Fox and won’t be the golden child. He is hanging onto the ball way too long. This is probably a reflection from only throwing passes during practice for the past three years. Unfortunately, Rogers will never have a chance to get his timing right in the NFC North. The Bears, Lions and Vikings will blitz the crap out of him. Facing the Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks, Colts, Titans and Jags—week 15 when the Jags will be playing for a potential wild card spot—means it is going to be a rough year for the Packers. The defense will be solid but not enough to overcome the non-existent offense.

22. Denver Broncos

Brian “DUI” Griese, Jake “The Snake” Plummer, and now, Jay “Don’t Call Me Elway” Cutler provides clear cut evidence as to why Denver decriminalized marijuana; the need for immediate short term memory loss. Jay Cutler was an average QB on a below average college program. Jay Cutler is still an average QB at best and now plays for a below average NFL team. But what is going to be their ultimate downfall is their defense. They have shut down corners in Champ Bailey and Dre Bly but shut down corners don’t win games or contain west coast offenses. You need hard hitting safeties, quick linebackers and a run stopping line; all of which the Broncos use to have but no longer do.

21. Chicago Bears

The Bears have chosen to go back to the future with Kyle Orton as their starting QB. More than likely the Bears will go back to the future again with Rex Grossman—or a bum to be named later—after they head into their week 8 bye at 2-5. When the Ravens won games by defense, they did so because their offense was able to keep the ball on the field long enough with a great running game to: A) rest their defense and B) to slowly win the field position battle to set up field goals or the rare short field touchdown. Matt Forte and Adrian “No Not That Adrian” Peterson aren’t going to be grinding time off the clock. And they aren’t going to help win the field position battle. They’re just hoping to stay at 7-9 or jump up to 8-8.

20. Buffalo Bills

With the exception of the Texans; the Rams, Packers, Broncos, Bears and Bills have all been waiting for their next great quarterback to show up. For the Bills, they thought the next Jim Kelly was J.P.Losman. That didn’t work so the new next Jim Kelly is Trent Edwards. Trent Edwards is basically a slower, less accurate, more interception prone version of Brett Farve. And the Bills defense is pretty much the polar opposite of the Broncos; solid upfront against the run, quick linebackers (not good but quick), hard hitting safeties (but can’t cover) and “throw all over” corners. They should hover around the .500 mark because they play the weak NFC West and have the luxury of playing the Dolphins twice. But the Toronto Black Ice (might as well get used to it now) won’t be in the playoff picture.

19. Washington Redskins

I’m still at a loss for how three NFC East teams made the playoffs last year. But I know the Redskins will not make the playoffs this year. I like Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis. I don’t like Jason Campbell throwing the ball. Their offensive playbook doesn’t match the talent on the field. They should be a run first team but for some reason they rely on Campbell not Portis. Shawn Springs is the only threat in the secondary to make game changing plays. The addition of Jason Taylor won’t do much except for take up blocks. As we saw last year in the playoffs, the Redskins can’t stop the run and won’t be able to this year. This is going to kill them against the Saints, Cowboys, Lions, Steelers and Browns. So it is back to the DeLorean for the Redskins until they can figure out how to utilize their offense.

100% Pure Adrenaline—Point Break

All these teams need Bodhi to pump them up and take them to the next level. These teams are running on empty because of injuries and poor offseason player management.

18. Seattle Seahawks

Earlier in the preview of the Atlanta Falcons, I mentioned how Chris Berman gave LDT the already taken nickname of LT. Well I don’t know that for a fact but I don’t care. He’s taking the blame for mentioning the Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders before the Browns/Giants preseason game on Monday Night Countdown. He either was higher than Seth Rogan or dementia has set in early. Matt Hasselbeck has zero offensive line protection. That’s why he got rocked all last year against, is feeling the pain already in his back this year and why no one will pick up the corpse of Shaun Alexander. That’s also why the Seahawks are going to have to rely on one of the two terrible twins (Charlie Frye or Seneca Wallace) by week 8 while doctors make Hasselbeck a cyborg after they play the Giants, Packers and Bucs back to back to back. There won’t be a running game to take the pressure off Hasselborg either. Maurice Morris has run for 2038 career yards in his SEVEN years of playing. And don’t get me started on “one of the top ranked defenses in the league”. You want to know how you become “an unstoppable defensive force?” You play in the F’n NFC West and combo that by playing the F’n NFC South last year. Seriously announcers dry humping the Seahawks drives me insane. The worst part is that I’m going to listen to every announcer, analyst and functionally retarded mumblers (Shannon Sharpe, Terry Bradshaw and John Madden) talk about how “it’s just a shame that this offense can’t produce because they have a Super Bowl caliber defense” because they play the Bills, 49ers (2x), Rams (2x), Packers, Eagles, Dolphins and Redskins; teams that are one dimensional or zero dimensional offensively. Thankfully their offense will be so bad they will finally miss the playoffs.

17. New York Giants

I was close to believing in the Giants as a playoff team but then I remembered a quote from Point Break and imagined Peyton playing the role of Bodhi and Eli as Johnny Utah: “It’s basic dog psychology, if you scare them and get them peeing down their leg, they submit. But if you project weakness, that promotes violence, and that’s how people get hurt”. I keep hearing about how much confidence he has now after winning a Super Bowl. Well…guess what? Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl and I don’t remember anyone talking about how much confidence he had after winning. In fact he was cut by the Ravens on the team’s way to Disney Land. I’m not saying Eli is as bad as Dilfer but lets look at the stats. Completed 56% of his passes, 73.9 passer rating and 23/20 touchdown to interception ratio and was sacked at least once in every game. But in the playoffs, Eli only threw one interception with six touchdowns. Two of the four games he had a passer rating over 115 compared to only one game during the regular season. Long story short, the dream is over for the other Manning. Not just because of his staggering ability to be inconsistent but last year the Giants defense saved him like gangbanger finding Jesus; got him off the streets but still not a model citizen. The injuries to the defense will be too much to overcome and the Giants will be only as good as their defense.

16. Pittsburg Steelers

Here’s why the Steelers won’t make the playoffs; offensive and defensive line. The offensive line went through a major overhaul during the offseason. Big Ben is going to feel the heat this year from hard blitzing defenses like the Colts, Jags, Chargers, Cowboys and Titans. If he goes down at any point of the season, how confident would you be handing the team over to Byron Leftwich? I would be at about a three. Leftwich has seen better days and Big Ben is going to be banged up this year. I can almost hear Johnny Utah screaming at Big Ben “This is your F’n wake-up call man,” because this will be by far his weakest Steelers team. He will be scrambling a lot which will take away the deep ball. And just to show how weak they are on the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers signed Orpheus Roye. Any defensive player released from the Browns should be sign that he isn’t that good. The linebackers are often hurt. This will force Troy Polamalu to play more like a linebacker and less like the best safety in the league. I’m thinking 8-8 or 9-7 for the Steelers this year. There are just too many question marks surrounding the offense and defense against a tough schedule. Now this might sound exactly like the Cleveland Browns. But the Browns have the ability on offense to never be out of a game. In order for the Steelers to win they have to be in control of the game. I just don’t see the Steelers being in control of many games.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Bodhi can explain the Eagles better than me; “Life sure has a sick sense of humor.” The Eagles have a weak schedule and look great on paper. Brian Westbrook is explosive duel threat out the backfield. Sheldon Brown, Asante Saumeul and Lito Sheppard should hold down the secondary. But they don’t play well at home, can’t stop the run and McNabb is finished in Philadelphia. He’s heading into his 10th season, hasn’t been healthy since the 2004 Super Bowl, and doesn’t have a wide receiver threat. The biggest problem with McNabb is that running QBs have a shelf life of 5-7 years. It is very difficult for a running QB to make the transition to a pocket QB. I strongly believe that this will be Donovan McNabb’s last year as an Eagle. There is a reason why the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb two years ago. Excluding the Cowboys, the teams in the NFC East are pretty much equal. 9-7 won’t be enough to get into the playoffs this year. So Eagles’ fans burn your #5 jerseys and be prepared to boo. It is going to be one of those seasons that is frustrating because the playoffs will be just out of sight.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The Niners have only one good LB? Manny Lawson?? So where does Patrick Willis rank with you?