Short and sweet...unless you're the Rams

I’m keeping things short and simple this Friday. I’m working on two pretty large columns right now. One is on the current state of the NFL and will be out tomorrow. The other one is on the NCAA and will be out Sunday night/Monday morning. So here are this weeks winners in BOLD CAPS.

DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Three things will happen this week:

1. We will see the Broncos gain 600 yards on offense
2. We will see just how bad the Broncos defense really is
3. We will see the Kansas City Chiefs lose again

CLEVELAND BROWNS at Cincinnati Bungals (-3.5)
This is a must win for the Browns and it is the only reason why the Browns will win. Well that and they are playing the Bungals.

HOUSTON TEXANS at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
I know the Jags beat the Colts last week and the Texans haven’t won yet. But 7 points is a lot to give up when your defense is giving up 300 yards a game.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at New York Jets (-1.5)
The Jets have no running game, Brett Farve is going to be chucking up INTs, and the defense can’t defend the pass. I guess making the Jets the favorite is logical.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-5)
The Saints might win the game but they aren’t beating Vegas. The Saints haven’t won a game by more than 5 points and the 49ers have showed they got a lot of fight in them.

Atlanta Falcons at CAROLINA PANTHERS (-6.5)
I want to pick Atlanta because the Panthers can’t stop the run. But the Falcons won’t be able to stop Steve Smith. In the end, not having a playmaker downfield will be the difference.

Minnesota Vikings at TENNESSEE TITANS (-3)
I was sold on the Titans before the season but now that they have a two game lead on the Colts; I’m Ed McMahon sold. This is the one team in the league I wish was my team. I would take this defense and Jeff Fisher every week; even if they had Tavaris Jackson at QB.

Green Bay Packers at TAMPA BAY BUCCANNERS (-1)
Aaron Rodgers didn’t like the Cowboys defense and isn’t going to like Bucs either. And if you thought the Bucs said “F running” last week, wait until this week. Not having Harris putting the fear of God into subpar receivers is going to be the reason why the Packers lose.

BUFFALO BILLS (-8) at St. Louis Rams
I would pick the Bills -17 against the Rams. Hell, even Rams players are starting to openly say that they don’t want to be a Ram. My only advice for the Rams is to make sure a medic and a defibrillator are near by for Trent Green.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders
And there goes another one of my sleeper picks. I hate you Al Davis.

Washington Redskins at DALLAS COWBOYS (-11)
It is going to be damn near impossible to beat the Cowboys at home this year.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) at Chicago Bears
I think this is make or break week for the Eagles. If they win, it probably means McNabb and Westbrook lived to see another week. If they lose, it means McNabb and/or Westbrook has a bed next to Trent Green. More importantly, if the Eagles lose; this could be the game that costs them a spot in the playoffs.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
I don’t like Flacco or really anyone on the Ravens offense beside Ray Rice. But this is a bad week for the Steelers to be playing the Ravens. Not having the one-two at running back means Big Ben is going to feel the pain.

Last Week — 9-7

Overall — 29-18

Next Week or Next Year: Your Choice Romeo

I wrote a column this morning about what I think is wrong with the Browns. How what’s really wrong with the Browns is that they were playing like “the winners” instead of playing like “the upsets”. To make a long story short, I wanted to write something that was serious, heartfelt and moving. Instead it ended up resembling a Dick Vermeil postgame speech on meth. It was allover the place and to be honest—in the end—it didn’t even make sense to me. So I’m not posting it and going to leave the good writing to Terry Pluto for now on. But I will explain what’s really wrong with the Browns and what I meant by how they are playing like “the winners” when they should be playing like “the upsets”. Before I get to the Bad News Browns, I’m going to talk about the Good News Browns.

The Good News Browns

The defense? Yes…the defense! Looking back to week 1, I think it is fair to say that the Browns defense wasn’t that bad; the Cowboys offense was just that good. This is the second week in a row the Cowboys have destroyed a good defense.

Last week, you could have said the Browns defense didn’t look so bad because of the weather. But this week, the Browns held two solid running backs to only 3.4 yards. They picked off Flacco twice and didn’t allow a passing touchdown. These past two weeks the defense has come up huge. Unfortunately, their play has been overshadowed by…

The Bad News Browns

Okay so here is what I meant by the Browns playing like “the winners” instead of playing like “the upsets”. They are playing like they expect to win the game and they expect to be winning the entire game. Some teams, like the Patriots and Cowboys, can—but more importantly—are built to play like this. They go into each game knowing that the plan is to start out running the football to control the clock early, then start passing towards the end of the first quarter and most of the second. Then run the ball some more and control the ball with short slants and outs to the tight end. The problem is that even though the Browns defense is better; it is far from lights out. And you can’t play this style of “winner” football without a highly dependable defense.

Instead the Browns should be playing like they did last year; playing like “the upset”. Remember the creativity in the Browns offense last year? You want to know why it was so creative last year and so predictable this year? Well last year the Browns weren’t supposed to do a damn thing so they had nothing to lose calling play action passes to a streaking Braylon Edwards, 60 yards downfield on first down. So far this year, they have been playing conservative because Romeo doesn’t want to take chances on loosing the game. But by doing so, he has handcuffed himself from taking chances on winning the game.

Bottom line, the Browns can play Johnny Utah at QB and it won’t make a difference. Until they stop planning for a win and start playing like they have nothing to lose; it’s never going to get better. Because the only thing we ever “plan on” in Cleveland is another long season.

NFL Week 3: Tussin and Turning

The Browns lost on Sunday, I got sick on Monday and I lost power on Tuesday. A terrible start to the week but it’s all about how you finish. So with the help of virgin DayQuil daiquiris and Robitussin rum runners I’m back close to 100%. More importantly I’m ready for week 3. Week 3 in the NFL is the make or break week. This is when teams show their true colors. Are they playoff caliber? Or are they playing for the rights to Joe McKnight? Excluding the NFC/AFC West and the NFC North, this is the week the Pearl Jam’s separate themselves from the Jonas Brothers.

But there is something weird about this week. Every home team (minus Dallas) is favored to win. I don’t know how this happened and I don’t know if this will ever happen again. This is going to be the week of the upsets or the week Vegas rakes it in. If I am the handicapper at Caesars or MGM; I’m sacrificing my first born to the gambling Gods, chasing Pepto-Bismol with liquid morphine and waiting for the all-clear signal Tuesday morning. And just to air on the side of caution, I’ve cleared out my desk and put my resume on Monster. Because this week has upset, hangover high and “we’re only better than the crappy teams we’ve played so far” written all over it. My advice would be to stay away from nearly every game this week. But if you got the itch, here is how to scratch it. As always the winners are in ALL CAPS BOLD.

Kansas City Chiefs at ATLANTA FALCONS (-5.5)
The Chiefs are on a mission to get Joe McKnight first overall. But this week their goal is to let Michael Turner break his own Atlanta Falcon’s record and the NFL single game rushing record. Last week the Chiefs gave up a total of 300 yards on the ground to a team with three solid running backs. The Falcons only have one but it he is better than those three right now (Note: McFadden won’t be the next Barry Sanders; somebody will be the next McFadden). So it isn’t a stretch to think The Burner has a chance to break both records against the Kansas City Cant’s.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
You could substitute both of these teams for the Cleveland Indians in the movie Major League. Lane Kiffin is basically out of a job if he loses another game badly…or just loses. The Bills have been mediocre at best since Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas left, resulting in their owners trying to relocate the team to Toronto. Both teams are playing for something and both teams have something to prove. I think the Bills will win this game but I don’t think by 9.5 points. I really have no logic behind this pick except that Trent Edwards can’t play like Peyton Manning every week.

Houston Texans at TENNESSEE TITANS (-5)
I do have some logic behind this game; it’s called the Titans’ defense. The Texans couldn’t move the ball against the Steelers and won’t move the ball against the Titans. I actually think this spread is too light. When is Vegas going to realize the Titans are in the top five in the league? My guess is when they are playing deep into January.

Cincinnati Bungals at NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5)
(Vomiting into a trashcan because I can’t believe the F’n Giants’ schedule is so weak that it is making the Giants look good) Okay…(vomiting because I just heard another rant on how confident Eli looks after winning a Super Bowl). Okay…(vomiting again thinking about Chris Berman talking about The GMEN). Okay…(F it…I’m just going to move on so I can stop vomiting).

ARIZONA CARDINALS at Washington Redskins (-3)
I don’t know what to make the Redskins. They look terrible. They’ve play terrible. But I’m just not sure they are terrible. The opposite can be said for the Cardinals. They look good. They’ve played good. But I’m just not sure. This is the week we find out about both of these teams. If the Cardinals blowout the Redskins; the Redskins stink. If the Redskins keep it close; the Redskins are better than I thought. If the Redskins win outright; well then the Cardinals play in the NFC West.

Miami Dolphins at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-12.5)
This is a lot of points for the Pats to cover. Thankfully Joey Porter decided to play the role of Clubber Lang and piss off Rocky. But unlike Rocky III¸ the Dolphins got handled the last time they played the Pats. So I’m going with the Pats because A) you don’t make the Pats mad, B) they haven’t lost a regular season game since 2006 and C) Belichick still has tape on Pennington and D) the tape on Pennington doesn’t matter because the Dolphins suck.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at Chicago Bears (-3)
This is a “prove it” game. But it is also a redemption game. Brian “DUI” Griese is looking to prove to the Bears that he is better than Orton and redeem himself as a starting QB in the process. If the Bears would have been able to hold the Panthers last week, I would have gone with the Bears without even looking at the line. But since the line is close, both teams rely on their running backs and defenses to get the job done; I’m going with the points.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The Panthers have been on a roll and now they get Steve Smith back. Yet somehow they aren’t favored to win? This line I don’t understand. I like the move to Gus Frerotte at QB but I don’t the Vikings without AP. Next week when AP is back and the Vikings have a QB that can actually make a decision, I’ll be back on the bandwagon. But you can’t give a 2-0 team that is getting back their best wide receiver 3.5 points against an 0-2 without their best player.

St. Louis Rams at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-9.5)
The only question surrounding this game is; can the Seahawks cover? Even though Hasselborg is clinically dead, the Rams are out to prove that they will be getting the first pick in the draft—not the Chiefs. So they are going to suck it up and be extra sucky this week.

Detroit Lions at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4)
Well leave it to the Lions to prove my playoff pick wrong…or will they? Two back alley abortions in a row for Lions make me really want to pick them this week. But I just can’t after they gave up against the Packers. Maybe this is the week the Lions try to stay alive but more than likely this is the week they pack it in. If they don’t start winning soon, Kitna is going to steal his own luggage to get out of Detroit.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at Denver Broncos (-5.5)
I’m still not sold on the Broncos. Watching them play last week, you just knew they were going to win. And I know the Saints blew it last week. But 5.5 points? Really? The Broncos showed last week that they are the Browns of last year. They play shootout football because their defense can’t stop teams built to score and score quickly. That’s why they went for two. Well this week will be a mirror image of last week. If they win outright, it won’t be by much.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Put the Eagles on the O’Reilly Factor because I’m not buying it. The Cowboys, once again, tried to lose the game with penalties but the Eagles would have none of it. I’m also not buying into the McNabb factor. He looked horrible in the 4^th quarter. The only thing I hate about this game is that Steelers are going to start out 3-0 and they are going to be tough to catch. God I hate both of these teams. I hope it goes into overtime and they tie.

Jacksonville Jaguars at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5)
The Jaguars stink on both sides of the ball. Any rust that was still on Peyton Manning’s arm is gone this week. Plus I’ll take the Colts at home any time, against any team—just as long as it is not the Pats.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at Baltimore Ravens (-2)
All I’m saying about this game is; if the Browns lose, I’m rooting for the Steelers, buying a portrait of Art Model and cutting off the sleeves to all my hoodies. A reverse jinx might be the only way to solve this season.

Sunday Night

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) at Green Bay Packers
Turns out I may have been wrong about Rogers. I’m still on the fence about him. But if he pulls this game out of his ass, the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC. I should have factored in Brett Farve on the cover of Madden in my preseason predictions. But up until now there hasn’t been a precedent set for a reverse Madden jinx. I’m going with Cowboys though because I just can’t say no to T.O.

Monday Night

New York Jets at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9)
This is the week the Chargers get back on track and the Jets go down the tube. But what the hell do I know? I’m 0-3 on Monday Night games.

Last Week — 10-5 (Ravens/Texans did not play)

Overall — 20-11

Who Are You?

I think that pretty much sums the past week in the NFL. There wasn’t one team this past week that didn’t leave Sunday or Monday the way they came in. Well…other than the Bungals and the Seahawks. It was just a weird weekend. This is exactly why I don’t place friendly wagers on the first two weeks. And this week is no different. There are a lot “come on…you know you want to” Vegas lines. The top teams are still shaking off the rust while the bottom teams are stealing your wallets. So who are you?

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Wow JaMarcus Russell did not look impressive and neither did the rest of the Raiders. The good news is that they are playing the Chiefs this week. If the Raiders don’t win this week, I’m hopping in the DeLorean, erasing my Raiders playoff pick, changing it to the Jets and pretending like it never happened.

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bunglas (-1)
Okay whoever is passing out the ether in Vegas is going to wake up Monday morning with his hands broken. How in the Hell are the Bungals favored? Did they throw for over 100 yards? Did they run for over a 100 yards? Did they allow Joe Flacco to run for a 38 yard touchdown? No, no and yes. I don’t care if Kerry “DUI” Collins is starting, if the Bungals offense couldn’t get it done against the Ravens’ defense they aren’t getting it done against the Titans.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are another DeLorean team. The Packers showed last week how to beat the Vikings; force them to throw. The Colts weren’t consistent last week but this is a new week. I just don’t there is any way the Colts start out 0-2.

New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins (pick)
I guess nobody saw the Saints or the Redskins last week. If they did they would have favored the Saints by 2.5 or 3. Since they didn’t see the Redskins not running the football, not passing and not playing defense; they made it a pick game. The Redskins are worse than I originally assumed but the Saints defense is better than I gave them credit for. They also decided that running Reggie Bush in between the tackles wasn’t smart and let him catch the ball on the run. This is good news for the Saints bad news for a slow Redskins’ defense.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions
I know Aaron Rogers had a good game against the Vikings and the Lions looked like they were stoned against the Falcons. But I’m picking the Lions for a few reasons. One: I’m giving them one more week before I remember my golden rule to never pick the Lions. Two: Jon Kitna is a lot better than Jackson, has better weapons downfield and they will establish the run by passing. Three: the Packers played above their ability last week at home and I don’t see them continuing this trend. Either way I’m not sold on this pick and if you are “making friendly bets” on this game; don’t. This is a “stay the F away game” because both of these are question marks until after this game.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Turns out I may have underestimated Jake Dellhomme and his newly reconstructed throwing arm. But I think I underestimated the Bears more. I didn’t see their defense stepping up like they did last week. And I should have considered Kyle Orton. He’s not a good quarterback; he’s not even an average quarterback. He just fits the mold of the Bears. It’s like he’s Bobby Boucher from The Waterboy. Lovie Smith just tells him not to blow it and Orton replies, “Coach, not only will I do it for you, I…I…I…yes, yes I’ll do it for you.” But if the Panthers win again without Steve Smith, I’ll convert into a Panthers believer.

New York Giants (-8.5) at St. Louis Rams
It’s now Eli “Did I win the Super Bowl and the first game” Manning. The Redskins lack of anything made Eli look better than he was. I’m going to go insane this week listening to announcers and analysts dry humping Eli. Saying things like, “He just has so much confidence right now and looked poised in the pocket. He’s just really coming into his own and has his team in Super Bowl form.” If any of the announcers or analysts on TV actually watched the games instead of just going off highlight reels; they’d see Eli is just a polished Kyle Orton.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Really Jacksonville 33 total yards rushing? I know the Titans defense is good but that is embarrassing. Garrard had 156 yards passing and 2 picks. The Jags o-line got even more banged up. And the Bills pimped slapped the Seahawks last week. But the Jags are still getting 8.5? How does this add up? Well it doesn’t. Last week showed the Jaguars are playing cautious and the Bills are playing for respect. Respect the Toronto Bills.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
This is another stay away game. I don’t know what to make of the Falcons. I liked Michael Turner before the season and really like him after last week. Also I thought John Abraham was dead but I guess not. Joey Galloway, Maurice Stovall and Antonio Bryant are all questionable for the Bucs. And Jeff Garcia might not play. Bottom line the Bucs are giving up way too many points coming off a loss in addition to all the question marks.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Well Matt Hasselborg has a bulging disk in his back, Julius “Thank God someone was dumb enough to sign me” Jones at running back and don’t have Bobby Engram or Deion Branch. Oh yeah the “toughest defense in the league” gave up 34 points last week. What happened to them last week was amazing. I can’t wait for a week 2 repeat against a worse team.

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
The Dolphins proved last week why they won only one game last year; they just know how to lose. Thomas “Wow I can’t believe me and my brother Julius are both starting” Jones ran for over a 100 yards last week. Jones isn’t even that good when he plays as himself in Madden. The Edge is way better than Jones and it is going to be another long run dominated game. Better luck next year Pennington.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1.5)
I know the Pats lost Brady but that doesn’t make the Jets favorites. If the Pats had Brady this would be another double digit spread. Brett Farve was throwing passes out of his ass that only work against crappy teams like the Dolphins. And when you bet against the Pats they make you pay. So I’m taking the Pats until they prove they suck without Brady.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-4.5)
I’m going with the Texans. I’m not a 100% sure. I’m about 60% sure. But I’m going with the Texans because the Ravens offense is so God awful. Throwing for under 150 yards and rushing under 100 against one of the worst defenses in the league isn’t going to get it done against the Texans. If the Texans broke Big Ben they are going to punish Flacco like a prison inmate. The Texans will get an early lead and the Ravens won’t be able to come back.

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
This is another huge surprise spread. If it was 3.5 I might go with the Broncos. I’m just not a Broncos believer. I think they took advantage of an unprepared Raiders team. LDT had a weak rushing/receiving game last week. That can only mean he is going to establish his dominance this week. I’m going with LDT and the same logic I used with the Colts; there is no way the Chargers are starting 0-2. Well—there is one way…somebody lets Norv Turner coach instead of telling him his job is to refill the Gatorade coolers.

Sunday Night

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Cleveland Browns
Browns at home….Browns at home….Browns at home….That’s all I’m telling myself.

Monday Night

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Yes! Last week was diabolical. The Eagles blowout the Rams, McNabb has an amazing game; it was like a dream come true. This week the real Eagles show up and get shut down. McNabb will feel the heat. None of his crappy wide receivers will be open. And Westbrook won’t know which defender to run into. Marion Barber probably won’t play for the Cowboys but Felix Jones will. He is a better matchup against the Eagles defense anyway.

Last Week — 10-6

Shot Down

I am convinced that the Browns lost the game and the Cowboys didn’t win it. If you just watched the game to watch the game, you will probably disagree. You’ll argue that the Browns had no pressure on Tony Romo, that they played prevent pass defense and that the Browns couldn’t move the ball offensively. But that wasn’t what I saw.

The defense wasn’t as bad as they looked. They looked awful but played average. They did a good job of stopping the run; in the first half. Even though they couldn’t get to Romo, they contained him; in the first half. And guess what? This is what the Browns defense is designed to do; contain. The problem was that they couldn’t keep containing throughout the game because of the offense.

DA looked a lot better than his stats. Besides Winslow, no one else could catch the ball. The Cowboys had 4 receivers with 3+ catches while the Browns only had one. Jamal Lewis was running the ball well until the Browns wide receivers decided to drop every pass. Edwards dropped 2 TD passes that would have changed the game. This is why the Browns were out of the game by the third quarter. Their offense screwed them on Sunday not their defense. I think this is something that every commentator missed.

Another thing that the commentators missed was that the Cowboys weren’t that impressive. Yes Romo had over 300 yards passing but he did throw a pick and only had one TD. Their defense was aided by the Browns’ wide receivers crapping all over themselves. And the Cowboys kept trying to let the Browns back in the game. They had 11 penalties for 82 yards.

But the real reason why the Browns lost was because of their coaches. They made no second half adjustments. It was like watching an episode of Big Brother. You just kept waiting for them to do something besides awkwardly looking at each other. They committed the first half to not being killed by the run. But they tried to do the same thing in the second half. They couldn’t get the linebackers involved so they just said “F it we’re done trying we might as well try to stop the run”. The problem was that you can’t keep playing the run when A) Romo is playing like Johnny Utah, B) When you’re down by 2 scores and C) When the offense keeps going three and out.

Offensively they kept trying to establish the run before establishing the pass. By the third quarter the Cowboys looked like they were playing Tecmo Bowl because of the Browns lack of creativity on offense. How many times did a first down run lead to a second and third down pass? About as many times as a first down pass led to a second down run followed by a third down pass. It was disgusting to watch the Cowboys pick every single play the Browns tried. But I’m done talking about this coat hanger abortion. It is over and done with. Now it is time to get ready for the Steelers. And to be honest, I think the Browns will beat the Steelers.

Last week the absence of Cribbs was noticeable. The Browns didn’t have the energy going into their offensive possessions like they do when Cribbs is returning. This was a huge factor and will be a huge factor against the Steelers. With Cribbs in the lineup the Browns go from average to good. Also I think we will see a better Browns offense than last week. The Steelers still play physical but lack the talent on defense like they once had. Winslow will have a bigger day if Braylon Edwards starts catching the passes he should. If Edwards decides to be a playmaker, this will force safety coverage, leaving Winslow to do what he does best; own the middle. Hopefully Stallworth will be in the lineup as well but it doesn’t look good. He is getting an MRI today for God knows what. If he isn’t in the lineup then expect Steptoe to be used in the slot. Who ever is in the slot will be open more this game because the Steelers don’t have the depth at cornerback like the Cowboys do. Getting Jamal Lewis going will be the biggest task. The Steelers no longer shut down the run but you still have to work for yards against them. If the Browns decide to keep going run first, run only and don’t make any adjustments; it will be another long day. But hopefully the Browns coaching staff learned that you have to change your game plan when it isn’t working.

Defensively, this is the match up the Browns have been waiting for; a power running team that isn’t designed to beat you deep and has an un-athletic quarterback. Big Ben is not Jesus Christ. He is probably the luckiest quarterback of all time. He got tossed on a team that could have won the Super Bowl with Charlie Batch. But as we saw last week, Big Ben doesn’t like to get hit. His offensive line isn’t the same and is not providing the same protection like they once did. I think this week the Browns will be blitzing. This will be the week that the additions of Rogers and Williams will be noticeable.

Call me crazy or call me a Browns fan but I think this week belongs to the Browns. Not only are they due but they’ve been waiting for this game. Dallas was a game. Pittsburg is the game.

NFL Week 1 Picks

My usual rule of thumb is to never bet on the first week of the season. One reason is because I like to get a feel for the season before I start making friendly wagers on the season. The second reason is because this is Vegas’ week. Besides the Super Bowl, the first week is the most betted week. NCAA was an appetizer last week. Now here is the main course for all the football junkies that have had the itch since training camp and Vegas knows it. The lines will be tight enough that you will convince yourself on underdogs that you would never take in week 8. They will be tasty enough that you will be thinking “Maybe this is a good three-team-teaser?” Even though you know a three-team-teaser is like walking into the Thunderdome. But the time has come to pick the winners and losers. The wills and the won’ts. The Johnny Depp’s and the Corey Haim’s. Winners are in bold.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4)

This is a tough game to pick. On one hand the Giants had to completely retool their defense and have Eli “Did I really win the Super Bowl” Manning. On the other hand the Redskins never had a defense and have Jason Cambell. I expect the Giants to win outright. I just don’t know about the spread. The game is going to be close. But I’m taking the Giants -4 at home because of their special teams. I think they are going to get good field position on the Redskins and get a lot of field goals as a result.

Cincinnati Bungals at Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)

I have a feeling I’m going to be kicking myself for picking the Ravens. But I just can’t pick the Bungals. Getting rid of Rudi Johnson was as big as a mistake as keeping Chad Ocho Cinco. Now the Bungals have no running game and their best receiver, T.J., is going to be doubled all day. The Ravens have a mediocre running game at best but the Bungals have zero on defense. I really don’t like the Ravens’ defense this year either. But I’m picking the Ravens this week because: A) The Bungals O-line is awful and B) The Ravens’ defense will activate the hit stick button because Ocho Cinco is still talking like he is going to Canton.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3)

The Dolphins are only getting 3 points?! J…E…T…S…Jets Jets Jets! Vegas is banking on people who trust “the experts” that Chad Pennington will make a difference in Miami. You could put Tom Brady or Payton Manning on the Dolphins and maybe the Dolphins would go .500. They still don’t have a defense, still don’t have a good running back, still don’t have a good quarterback, still don’t have an O-line and still only have one wide receiver that can catch the ball. Take the Jets and don’t convince yourself that Dolphins can keep it close.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-16)

16 points is a huge spread considering it is only week one and Tom Brady hasn’t taken a snap yet. You just have to tell yourself that it is the Chiefs and they probably won’t score against the Pats. Even without Tom Brady the Pats can score 21 points on the Chiefs while the Chiefs will be lucky to score a field goal.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

This is another tough game to pick. I think the Steelers will win but it is a high spread against the Texans. The Steelers have a bad to terrible offensive line. If Mario Williams can create pressure off the end it is going to be a long painful day for Big Ben. The Steelers defense isn’t as good as in years past but they still play physical. I think their physical defensive style will be enough to offset their lack of talent and depth. Long story short…stay away from this game. 6.5 is a lot of points to give to a team that is so unpredictable like the Texans.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (+3)

A lot of people are high on the Jaguars this year but I just don’t see it. What happened to Richard Collier should have never happened but it did. The Jags now have two tackles and their center unavailable for this game. This means three backups will now have to block Jevon Kearse, Tony Brown, Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Garrard better have his running shoes on because the pressure is coming. The Titans don’t need the points and will win this game outright.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+3)

This is another “We hope people will be dumb enough to take the points” Vegas line. This game will not even be close. Kitna is going to throw all over the weak Falcons’ secondary. Rudi Johnson is playing for his luggage. And I’m telling you the Lions’ defense will be a surprise this year. They got what they were missing in a #3 cornerback in Leigh Bodden from the Browns. The only way the Falcons keep this close is if Michael Turner proves he is the real deal and rushes for 200 yards. Matt Ryan showed in the preseason that he can’t carry the load. This game is just the start of the Falcons dreadful season.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (-1)

I don’t know why Vegas wasted its time in making the Bills a one point favorite. This should be a pick-em game. Either way I’m picking the Bills. The Seahawks are the living dead. Bobby Engram is not playing and Deion Branch might not be playing. So who is Matt Hasselbeck—correction, Hasselborg—going to count on to catch the ball? That is if Hasselborg can survive a full game. Maurice Morris should not be a starting running back in this league. And their best defensive player, Lofa Tatupu, is a game-time decision. Last year I may have picked the Seahawks but this is their year like it is Motley Crue’s.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

I like Tampa Bay and I like New Orleans. But I’m going with the hurricane factor in this game. Not Gustav; I’m talking about former Miami Hurricane Jeremy Shockey. In the past 5 years the tight end position has become the most valuable position on offense. Shockey is hybrid of Ricky Dudley and Mike Ditka. He catches everything and punishes defenders on blocks. Tampa Bay has a good defense but not enough to overcome the Saints offense. The Saints defense plays a “bend but don’t break” style of defense. This will match up well against a team that struggles to get in the end zone against any team.

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)

I know I said the Eagles suck at home. Their defense is nothing to look at. And that this will be McNabb’s last year as an Eagle. But come on, they’re playing the Rams. The Eagles should run away with this game and I hope they do. I want every announcer to go nuts this first week over the Eagles saying, “See! I told you! The Eagles are for real and are Super Bowl contenders!” It will make the following weeks that much sweeter to watch the Eagles collapse starting week two against Dallas. Also I can’t wait for the Eagles to trade Lito Sheppard for some bum wide receiver to offset the injuries to Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown. Trust me it is going to be good…unless you are an Eagles fan.

Dallas at Cleveland (+5.5)

I really hope I am wrong on this game because it kills me to pick against the Browns. I’m still going to root for them but I just don’t think this is their week. The Browns need Josh Cribbs on the field to have a chance at this game. Without Cribbs’ ability to neutralize the performance of the defense; it is going to be a long night for the Browns. Sean Jones and Brodney Pool are both game time decisions. This is really bad news Browns if they don’t play. Jamal Lewis is another game time decision. And God knows what DA is going to show up. I want to be wrong so bad on this game that I’m praying Big Dawg takes one for the team and decapitates TO if he jumps in the Dawg Pound. But I got a full prescription of Xanax and a bottle of Jameson ready for Sunday afternoon just in case.

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-9)

If you are looking for a “two team teaser”, this is it. Take the Chargers -15 and the Eagles -.5. I can’t believe this line is only 9. The Chargers are going to flat out punish the Panthers on both sides of the ball. I really don’t know how Vegas can honestly think that either: A) Carolina is worse than St. Louis or B) Philadelphia is almost as good as San Diego. This is my guarantee pick of the week. There is no way the Panthers are staying within ten points of the Chargers.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco (+2.5)

I really like this line. If San Francisco was at +3.5 or higher…I wouldn’t touch this game with John Meyer’s penis. Because it is time for Arizona to prove they can win the NFC West and San Francisco’s time to show the rebuilding phase is working. But this game got me thinking; why does Vegas make 2.5 and 1 point lines? How many times does a team win by two or one? Because if you are taking the 49ers in this game, you’re basically betting that they win outright. Since I don’t see the 49ers winning this game outright I’m going with the Cardinals.

Sunday Night Game

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)

Let’s see the Colts are at home. Judge Manning is healthy. The wide receivers are healthy. The defense is healthy. The Bears stink. So why are the Bears only getting 9.5 points and the Chiefs are 16? I know the Colts center Jeff Saturday is hurt but really? The Bears are only getting 9.5? They should be getting at least 13.5. Maybe Vegas is thinking that the game will be out of reach by halftime and the Colts will rest Manning in the second half. Even if they do I can’t imagine the Bears scoring 10 points on the Colts defense. The only reason why I’m not guarantying this game is because of the Bears special teams. Maybe they can keep them in this game. But that is a huge maybe.

Monday Night Games

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay (-2.5)

I really think the Packers are in trouble this game. I didn’t think Aaron Rodgers looked comfortable in the preseason. He held onto the ball and felt a lot a pressure. I don’t see things getting better for him this week against the Vikings. The Packers are going to be without their starting right guard, center, left tackle and running back Ryan Grant. They are also going to be without A.J Hawk, Atari Bigby and Charlie Peprah on defense. This is not good news for a team that was banking on their defense to carry them. AP is going to be putting up huge runs without Hawk waiting for him when he gets into the open field.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+3)

This is a huge test for my Raider playoff prediction. I think they can get it done because of two things. The Broncos defense hasn’t been this weak in years and Jay “Don’t call me Elway” Cutler will throw at least one pick. That’s one too many against the Raiders’ defense. It is going to be hard for the Broncos to establish the run because they don’t have the hogs like they used to either. The only way I see the Raiders losing this game is if the Raiders need JaMarcus Russell to come from behind to win. Even then the Raiders should cover.

NFL Preseason Rankings Part Two: 14-1

Total Surprise…Almost Total Success—Red Dawn

How do teams in this tier compare to Red Dawn? Simple…some of these teams will be a total surprise and some of them will be almost total successes.

14. New York Jets

Don’t cry! Well you might cry if you’re a Jets fan because they are going to just miss the playoffs. Brett Farve was a no brainer pick up. The Jets are catering the offense towards him by incorporating wide receiver routes that he was used to while playing in Green Bay. But here is why Farve and the Jets won’t make the playoffs. Farve’s success last year—and every year—has been due to the O-line and the running game. Right now Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson look like the only two linemen who can block. If he doesn’t have the blocks, expect a lot of interceptions from Farve trying to make something happen. The other worse news is that Farve’s success solely lies on the running game. From 2000-2004 the Packers had a 1000+ yard running back, had winning season each year and only missed the playoffs once. In 2005, their lead rusher (Samkon Gado) only had 582 yards, the Packers went 4-12 and missed the playoffs. In 2006 Ahmed Green had 1000+ yards, Packers finished 8-8, barely missed the playoffs and finished 2^nd in the NFC North. Last year the Packers ran a platoon running back system. Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn had 1400+ yards on the ground, Packers finished 13-3 and were a game away from the Super Bowl. But the Jets running back Thomas Jones has been in slow decline since 2005. His rushing attempts go up but his total yards, yards per carry and TDs drop significantly every year. He turns the magical running back decline age of 30 this year as well. Leon Washington can’t carry the majority of the work load. He averaged 5 yards a carry but had four fumbles while being used primarily as a red zone back. It doesn’t look good right now for the Jets’ backfield or Brett Farve. His life partner didn’t do him a favor either putting him on the cover of Madden either.

13. Oakland Raiders

Let’s see…Al Davis hates new head coach Lane Kiffin. Lane Kiffin hates Al Davis…playoffs! All is right in Raider Nation and the stars are in line. First off their schedule is weak. They play Denver (2x), KC (2x), Bills, Falcons, Dolphins, Panthers and Texans. Then have toss up games against the Jets and Ravens. McFadden is the real deal. JaMarcus Russell is getting his passes down. Zach Miller is a great tight end and if Javon Walker is healthy it is going to be a really good year for the Raiders. Oh yeah forgot about their defense. Nobody runs on the Raiders. The addition of DeAngelo Hall will help out the pass defense. This is going to be a really good Raiders team that will take advantage of a weak schedule. The only team that can crush the Raiders playoff dreams is…

12. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are a better team than the Raiders but two factors will kill their playoff run; A) offense and B) schedule. David Garrard is not the man you want throwing passes. He makes a lot of mistakes but convinces you that he is good. He always has one or two games that makes you forget about the four or five he loses. Jerry Porter is hurt. Matt Jones can’t get open. Fred Taylor will be hurt again. Maurice Jones-Drew was recently arrested on drug charges so who knows how many games he will miss. But their biggest challenge will be their schedule. Playing in the AFC South is a death wish this year. The Colts will dominate as always. The Titans are for real. The Texans for some reason only play well against AFC South opponents. And the Jags never play well until week 10. I don’t know why but they are always .500 or below until week 10. They can’t expect the same help they got last year to get into the playoffs this year.

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers won’t win the NFC South this year but should still make the playoffs. They get to play the Falcons (2x), Bears, Packers, Broncos, Panthers (2x), Seahawks and Chiefs. They were always known for their defense and this year won’t be any different. Cato June, Derrick Brooks, Adam Hayward, Phillip Buchanon, Ronde Barber and Will Allen will make their presence known early and often. Garcia, McCown and Griese aren’t good starting QBs. They are good midseason replacements to get the team back on track. The good news is that because of this the Bucs can rotate QBs without worrying if a QB can step into the fire. The other good news is that their offensive line is loaded. Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn will be given room to run. It is hard to make a case against the Bucs because their schedule is so weak.

10. Detroit Lions

Playoffs? Yes the Lions will be in the Playoffs. They play a weak schedule; Falcons, Packers (2x), 49ers, Bears (2x), Texans and Panthers. Their offense is loaded. Kitna throwing to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson is going to be easier this year because teams will now have to respect the run. The Lions now have Rudi Johnson, Kevin Smith and Brian Calhoun in the backfield. Also this will be a defense that will surprise a lot of teams. Their 2^nd year defensive coordinator, Joe Barry, spent six seasons with Tampa Bay before coming to Detroit. They got Brian Kelly and Dewayne White from Tampa, Chartic Darby from Seattle and Dwight Smith from Minnesota. Expect this Tampa Bay defense to be established with authority since Joe Barry now has 4 starters who are proven and are familiar with his defense.

They weren’t looking for a fight. They were looking to belong—The Outsiders

These guys are the Greasers. They get picked on. Any flaw is magnified by ten. But at the end of the day the Greasers get the job done in a dirty way.

9. Cleveland Browns

Browns fans take the shotguns out of your mouths. Everything will be okay in the Dawg Pound. This is still their year to win the AFC North. I’m not worried about DA because Brady Quinn is ready to play. They proved last year that they have the testicular fortitude to get rid of a QB quickly if he isn’t working out. The Browns just have to weather the storm of their first four games. If they come out of that 2-2 the Browns will be fine. As for their defense, I’m still not sure we’ve seen the real Browns defense yet. It is still going to be a rough game against the Cowboys but it will be a much different Browns team than that of the preseason.

8. Arizona Cardinals

This is the Cardinals year to win the NFC West. Seattle might as well have an ER attached to their stadium. The Rams will be playing the spread and the 49ers aren’t ready yet. Kurt Warner actually looks good again. Anquan Boldin wants out of Arizona because he wants more money. Translation; this will be a breakout year for Boldin trying to up his stock. And how can bet against a team with a running back named Tim Hightower? Basically the Cardinals will be good because of their offense, their division and their schedule.

7. New Orleans Saints

Jeremy Shockey just made the Saints NFC South champions. He catches any ball near him. Linebackers don’t want to tackle him. And he blocks like a guard. The addition of Shockey will free up Reggie Bush out of the backfield and Marques Colston in the deep route. The only downside for this team is their defense. But they only play four teams that can make their defense pay (Vikings, Raiders, Chargers, and Lions). The Saints will win the division pretty easily because of their schedule. But they will die in the playoffs because of their defense.

6. Tennessee Titans

This is a really good team that should win a wild card spot easily. There defense is nasty, probably the fourth best in the league. I like the addition of Alge Crumpler at tight end. Young should be able to find him all day on roll out plays. Any team that has a running quarterback needs a good tight end because passes downfield don’t really work. Also Alge Crumpler is used to a running back. He was Vicks best receiver before Vick was converted to receiver in the Federal Penitentiary. LenDale White is going to pound the football behind a huge offensive line. Chris Johnson should break free for the long runs acting as perfect compliment to White.

Jeff Fisher is one of the best coaches in the league. His teams are always ready to go to the playoffs. The strength of the Titans is the reason why the Jags won’t be in the playoffs. Because unlike the NFC East last year that was pretty much even, the AFC South has two powerhouses, making it tough for three teams to come out of the division.

5. Minnesota Vikings

What do you get when you combine a great defense with a great running back? The answer is a division title. Even though I think the Lions will make the playoffs, I think the Vikings will run away this division…literally. AP is going to punish defenses and Tarvaris Jackson is becoming a decent quarterback. The only question mark on this team that will kill them in the playoffs is their wide receivers. Bernard Berrian is good but there is really nothing else. But you don’t need too much else to win a division when you got a running back like Adrian Peterson. Tough defense and a star running back is how the Chargers established dominance in the AFC West and how the Vikings will in the NFC North.

Driving headlong towards the biggest fight of their lives—Over the Top

These teams are on the top of their divisions. But if they want to win the Super Bowl they will have to go over the top.

4. New England Patriots

Even though the Pats have a defense that is older than Stallone and a secretively injured Tom Brady, they will still dominate the AFC East. They have the weakest schedule in the NFL by far. They got three good running backs in Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan. Randy Moss and Wes Welker will be catching passes with or without Brady. And the addition of Deltha O’Neal improves the secondary dramatically. Teams will be able to run the ball against the Pats but passing will not be an option. They won’t be 16-0 at the end of the season, maybe not even have home field advantage in the playoffs, but will easily have 12 wins.

3. Dallas Cowboys

I have the Cowboys at the #3 spot but I’m not convinced. They seem almost too good on paper yet have a lot bad things working against them. They have two horrible coaches in Wade Philips and Todd Grantham. Wade Philips is just flat out bad. I don’t know how he keeps getting coaching jobs after continually failing. He looks like Sloth on the sidelines waiting for someone to hand him a Baby Ruth. Adding Todd Grantham as a defensive line coach is a huge red flag. He’s going to put his Tony Soprano jumpsuit on, flail his arms and pray that Tank Johnson doesn’t kill him.

And I’ll let you in on a little secret…Tony Romo is drastically overrated. He’s a glorified Matt Lienart. If he didn’t have the line, running back and TO; Kurt Warner would be starting in Dallas. In big games he might as well not play. 189 yards and a “Laces out Dan!” hold in ’07. 201 yards, a touchdown and a season ending interception in ’08. Overall, I’m not impressed with Romo in the playoffs.

But I’m putting them at the #3 spot because Romo does have that O-line, a running back and TO. They also got a great defense. And they play a crappy schedule. I just don’t know about the Cowboys. They are either going to be in the Super Bowl or go one and done in the playoffs.

2. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are very similar to the Cowboys. They look really good on paper. They have the best defense in the NFL. Jammer and Cromartie are the best in the league at covering. And wide receivers do not like it when their quarterback decides to throw underneath against Jammer and Cromartie. They always use hit stick never square. They also have the best set of linebackers; Shaun Phillips (8.5 sacks, 3 fumbles, 2 int.), Stephen Cooper (108 tackles), Matt Wilhelm (98 tackles) and Shawne Merriman (68 tackles and 12.5 sacks). The only question on this defense is Merriman. I know he says he is going to play through the knee injury. But how long can he really play through it? There is no way he can play a full NFL season with torn ligaments in his knee. The only way it is possible is if he participates in the “off season lifting program” during the season and takes more roids.

The Chargers also have two go-to wide outs in Chris Chambers and Antonio Gates. One of those two should always be open because of LDT. Every team has to not only respect the run but also the flats. If you let LDT catch the ball on the run, you might as well just give the Chargers 14 points every game. What this means for Chambers and Gates is that they should be open every time underneath. It really is a “lose-lose” for defenses without skilled linebackers. But there are two holes in this Death Star; Philip Rivers and Norv Turner.

This is when the Cowboys/Chargers really stands out for me. Rivers is overrated and unproven in big games. His stats, like Romo, look amazing when taken out of context. But when you look at big playoff games, the stats don’t lie and mediocrity reigns. In 2006 against the Pats he threw for 230 yards. But he completed less than 50% of his passes and threw 1 int. and no touchdowns. Against the Pats last year he threw for 211, 2 int. and no touchdowns. Maybe the Pats have his number like they had Peyton Manning’s. Or maybe it is a sign of not being able to perform when it really counts.

Finally, Norv Turner is consistently the worst coach in the NFL that keeps getting rehired. He’s been to the playoffs twice and 4 winning seasons in 10 years. I don’t know how or why teams think he is a good head coach. Offensive coordinator maybe but he never fails to prove that he is a failure. But he has just too good of a team and too weak of a schedule to mess the Chargers up until the AFC divisional or title game. That’s when the real Norv truly shines.

One Man is Judge, Jury, AND Executioner—Judge Dredd

1. Indianapolis Colts

Before I get to Judge Manning I’m going to talk about the defense. The Colts have the third best defense in the game. Running against the Colts doesn’t work. The front four force everything inside and the linebackers make sure it stays that way. Passing is also a struggle. Last year the linebackers combined for 227 tackles and 7 interceptions. They can cover well enough to take pressure off their safeties and tackle well enough to limit yards after catch. This allows the safeties to play a little deeper than most teams to control the deep pass. The only real way to beat this defense is to constantly switch offensive formations. Spread packages force the talented linebackers off the field and untested 3^rd and 4^th string corners on. But most teams don’t have three or four respectable threats at wide out. This is one reason why the Colts are so hard to match up against. The other reason is Judge Manning.

Don’t believe the hype. Peyton Manning is ready to go. He has two years left of dominance. He might not have the best wide receivers in the league but he has his wide receivers. Harrison, Wayne, Clark and now Gonzalez know exactly where and when Manning is going to throw the ball. This is why the Colts are so good passing the football. When you look at the Colts preseason, their offense was bad because they were out of synch. These guys were made by Manning to be Manning’s wide receivers; not Sorgi’s. With that said, if the Colts don’t have Manning, they might not even make the playoffs. The NFC South is by far the hardest division in the NFL. The Colts can’t afford off games. If they lose 4-5 games they might lose their division. If this happens then my playoff prediction will be different. The Titans or the Jaguars will win the division. The Raiders will be out and the AFC South will carry three teams into the playoffs. But if Manning stays healthy, Colts win in February.

NFC

Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, Cardinals

Wild Cards—Lions, Buccaneers

AFC

Patriots, Browns, Colts, Chargers

Wild Cards—Titans, Raiders

1^st Round Playoffs

Vikings over Buccaneers

Lions over Cardinals

Titans over Browns

Patriots over Raiders

Divisional Playoffs

Vikings over Saints

Cowboys over Lions

Colts over Titans

Chargers over Patriots

Conference Championship

Cowboys over Vikings

Colts over Chargers

Super Bowl Champions

Colts

NFL Preseason Rankings Part 1: 32-15

Nearly every morning I listen to the Adam Carolla Radio Show. I have this luxury because I graduated and don’t have a job yet. One of the best segments of the radio show is when Adam Carolla breaks down what he calls Basic Cable Classics. These are movies that are so bad that you can’t pass up when you come across them on cable. I bring up Basic Cable Classics because when I was thinking of ways to introduce my preseason predictions, I could think of no better way than to breakdown teams according to the taglines of some of my own personal favorite Basic Cable Classics.

The Story Continues…—The Karate Kid Part II

The Karate Kid Part II picks up where The Karate Kid left off. Daniel-Son is heading to Japan with Mr. Miyagi to see his dying father. I don’t know how Mr. Miyagi’s father was still alive but these teams aren’t.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Only one team can be the worst in the NFL and the Chiefs are going to make sure no one takes that away from them. I really only think they have two winnable games this year; Week 3 at Atlanta and Week 16 at home against Miami. Every other week they will be double digit underdogs. Tony Gonzalez will be catching passes from a Tim Couch impersonator named Brodie Croyle. LJ is coming off foot surgery and turning the magical downhill running back age of 30. I’m not even sure they play with an offense line. A team once known for their defense now has a rookie DE as their premier player. Mr. Miyagi says “early retirement” for Glenn Dorsey as long as he stays on the Chiefs.

31. Atlanta Falcons

I like the addition of Michael Turner. Always thought he was good when he played for Northern Illinois and was underrated at San Diego playing the Courtney Cox to LDT’s Jennifer Aniston (side note* Chris Berman got some news for you, the nickname “LT” was taken twenty years ago. Maybe the next one you’ll “creatively come up with out of nowhere” might be “Broadway Joe” or “Ed Too Tall”). But even with a weak schedule, the Falcons are three years away from a winning season. Matt Ryan isn’t going to get a lot blocking upfront because the Falcons were banking long term on not having a pocket passer. And the only bright spots in the defense are going to be a double-teamed John Abraham and an aging Lawyer Milloy.

30. Miami Dolphins

Good news is that the Dolphins will not be the worst team in the NFL this year. Bad news is that they will still be dead last in the AFC East. Ricky “The Passive Warrior” Williams will probably see a lot of action with Ronnie Brown out and that’s not good. Oh yeah spoiler alert; Chad Pennington is not good. He wasn’t good before he ruined his shoulder and wasn’t good after. Chad Henne will be taking snaps after they lose their first five games and Chad Pennington has a higher medical insurance co-pay than Mick Foley.

29. Cincinnati Bengals

Wait for it…Wait for it…Wait for it…Ladies and gentlemen…the Bungals! You have got to be kidding me Cincinnati. It’s like after the ’05 season the Bengals said “We got to do something about this ‘winning’ thing and get back to losing before we forget how”. They started with the garage sale of their offensive and defensive line in ‘06. Then they got rid of the secondary and swapped out some linebackers in ‘07. But they truly saved the best for ‘08; not trading Chad Johnson (who now has a torn labrum), picking up a suspended Chris Henry (who they kicked off the team last year) and for the finale they cut Rudi Johnson for…CHRIS HENRY! Wow. The “back alley abortion” known as the Bungals are back and they are ready to depress.

28. Baltimore Ravens

Only one team needs to fear the Ravens defense; the Ravens offense. Willis McGahee is a decent running back but he is no Barry Sanders and can’t carry a crappy team with no quarterback or wide receivers to the playoffs; let alone a winning record. And the defense is aging rapidly. They can’t spend 40 minutes on the field anymore. It is just too much to ask. They’ve been aging in dog years because of the Ravens inability to hold onto the ball. If I’m Ravens’ head coach John Harbaugh, first, I’m moving Ray Lewis’s locker next to Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, Joe Flacco, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton. Second, I’m strategically placing all sharp objects near Ray Lewis. Third, I’m telling Ray-Ray, “If you ever ‘allegedly’ do something again, the bleach is under the sink”.

27. Carolina Panthers

I bet Jake Delhomme and Chad Pennington are good friends. They both start out the season playing average at best. Then they will have a monster game, followed by a Ryan Leaf game, return to average, back to Ryan Leaf, then Vinny Testaverde hops off his rascal and out performs them for 8 weeks. Translation: a soul crushing QB (Delhomme and Pennington) that you can’t get rid of and 4 to 7 wins. They got rid of DeShaun Foster and are banking on a severely undersized DeAngelo Williams to carry the load. So I’m betting the Panthers are going to be closer to the 4 than the 7.

26. San Francisco 49ers

I like Vernon Davis, Isaac Bruce, Frank Gore/DeShaun Foster and J.T. O’Sullivan. But I don’t like their defense and their schedule. Nate Clements and Walt Harris can guard the deep ball threat but they only got one decent linebacker in Manny Lawson. Their defensive line is just flat out bad. Not having linebackers and a d-line is bad when you run a 3-4 defense against mainly west coast offenses. They just don’t have the fire power like the Browns had last year to out score teams. So for at least this season, it is back to the dojo for the 49ers.

Do You Remember…The Future?—Back to the Future Part II

Back to the Future Part II was great because they travel to 2015 (which looks like 1985 on steroids) then they have to travel back to 1955 in order to correct the present. Every team in this tier had promising futures until Biff got a hold of the sports book.

25. Houston Texans

Remember Joey Harrington? Well if you blocked that from your memory prepare to block out Matt Schaub. The only difference is that Schaub has Andre Johnson but not much else. Ahman “I’m hurt again” Green is not the answer at running back. Mario Williams might be the answer but he can’t play in the secondary and on the line. Their schedule is not going to be fun either playing in the toughest division in the NFL. But they are in this tier because every year they win three games they shouldn’t and play the Ravens, Dolphins and Bungals at home.

24. St. Louis Rams

The Rams bought a DeLorean three years ago but couldn’t figure out how to work the flux capacitor. Turns out that was a problem. They messed up big time not retooling three years ago. Marc Bulger manages games but doesn’t win them. When he doesn’t have a line, 3 All-Pro WRs, an All-Pro running back and a lighting fast defense; he’s not that good. But the biggest mistake the Rams made was not keeping up with the defense. Last year when the offense caught the black plague it really showed. And unless I accidently ate mushrooms, I’m seeing Trent Green at the #2 QB followed by Bruce Gradkowski and Brock Berlin. Great Scott!

23. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rogers is no Michael J. Fox and won’t be the golden child. He is hanging onto the ball way too long. This is probably a reflection from only throwing passes during practice for the past three years. Unfortunately, Rogers will never have a chance to get his timing right in the NFC North. The Bears, Lions and Vikings will blitz the crap out of him. Facing the Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks, Colts, Titans and Jags—week 15 when the Jags will be playing for a potential wild card spot—means it is going to be a rough year for the Packers. The defense will be solid but not enough to overcome the non-existent offense.

22. Denver Broncos

Brian “DUI” Griese, Jake “The Snake” Plummer, and now, Jay “Don’t Call Me Elway” Cutler provides clear cut evidence as to why Denver decriminalized marijuana; the need for immediate short term memory loss. Jay Cutler was an average QB on a below average college program. Jay Cutler is still an average QB at best and now plays for a below average NFL team. But what is going to be their ultimate downfall is their defense. They have shut down corners in Champ Bailey and Dre Bly but shut down corners don’t win games or contain west coast offenses. You need hard hitting safeties, quick linebackers and a run stopping line; all of which the Broncos use to have but no longer do.

21. Chicago Bears

The Bears have chosen to go back to the future with Kyle Orton as their starting QB. More than likely the Bears will go back to the future again with Rex Grossman—or a bum to be named later—after they head into their week 8 bye at 2-5. When the Ravens won games by defense, they did so because their offense was able to keep the ball on the field long enough with a great running game to: A) rest their defense and B) to slowly win the field position battle to set up field goals or the rare short field touchdown. Matt Forte and Adrian “No Not That Adrian” Peterson aren’t going to be grinding time off the clock. And they aren’t going to help win the field position battle. They’re just hoping to stay at 7-9 or jump up to 8-8.

20. Buffalo Bills

With the exception of the Texans; the Rams, Packers, Broncos, Bears and Bills have all been waiting for their next great quarterback to show up. For the Bills, they thought the next Jim Kelly was J.P.Losman. That didn’t work so the new next Jim Kelly is Trent Edwards. Trent Edwards is basically a slower, less accurate, more interception prone version of Brett Farve. And the Bills defense is pretty much the polar opposite of the Broncos; solid upfront against the run, quick linebackers (not good but quick), hard hitting safeties (but can’t cover) and “throw all over” corners. They should hover around the .500 mark because they play the weak NFC West and have the luxury of playing the Dolphins twice. But the Toronto Black Ice (might as well get used to it now) won’t be in the playoff picture.

19. Washington Redskins

I’m still at a loss for how three NFC East teams made the playoffs last year. But I know the Redskins will not make the playoffs this year. I like Santana Moss, Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis. I don’t like Jason Campbell throwing the ball. Their offensive playbook doesn’t match the talent on the field. They should be a run first team but for some reason they rely on Campbell not Portis. Shawn Springs is the only threat in the secondary to make game changing plays. The addition of Jason Taylor won’t do much except for take up blocks. As we saw last year in the playoffs, the Redskins can’t stop the run and won’t be able to this year. This is going to kill them against the Saints, Cowboys, Lions, Steelers and Browns. So it is back to the DeLorean for the Redskins until they can figure out how to utilize their offense.

100% Pure Adrenaline—Point Break

All these teams need Bodhi to pump them up and take them to the next level. These teams are running on empty because of injuries and poor offseason player management.

18. Seattle Seahawks

Earlier in the preview of the Atlanta Falcons, I mentioned how Chris Berman gave LDT the already taken nickname of LT. Well I don’t know that for a fact but I don’t care. He’s taking the blame for mentioning the Seahawks are Super Bowl contenders before the Browns/Giants preseason game on Monday Night Countdown. He either was higher than Seth Rogan or dementia has set in early. Matt Hasselbeck has zero offensive line protection. That’s why he got rocked all last year against, is feeling the pain already in his back this year and why no one will pick up the corpse of Shaun Alexander. That’s also why the Seahawks are going to have to rely on one of the two terrible twins (Charlie Frye or Seneca Wallace) by week 8 while doctors make Hasselbeck a cyborg after they play the Giants, Packers and Bucs back to back to back. There won’t be a running game to take the pressure off Hasselborg either. Maurice Morris has run for 2038 career yards in his SEVEN years of playing. And don’t get me started on “one of the top ranked defenses in the league”. You want to know how you become “an unstoppable defensive force?” You play in the F’n NFC West and combo that by playing the F’n NFC South last year. Seriously announcers dry humping the Seahawks drives me insane. The worst part is that I’m going to listen to every announcer, analyst and functionally retarded mumblers (Shannon Sharpe, Terry Bradshaw and John Madden) talk about how “it’s just a shame that this offense can’t produce because they have a Super Bowl caliber defense” because they play the Bills, 49ers (2x), Rams (2x), Packers, Eagles, Dolphins and Redskins; teams that are one dimensional or zero dimensional offensively. Thankfully their offense will be so bad they will finally miss the playoffs.

17. New York Giants

I was close to believing in the Giants as a playoff team but then I remembered a quote from Point Break and imagined Peyton playing the role of Bodhi and Eli as Johnny Utah: “It’s basic dog psychology, if you scare them and get them peeing down their leg, they submit. But if you project weakness, that promotes violence, and that’s how people get hurt”. I keep hearing about how much confidence he has now after winning a Super Bowl. Well…guess what? Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl and I don’t remember anyone talking about how much confidence he had after winning. In fact he was cut by the Ravens on the team’s way to Disney Land. I’m not saying Eli is as bad as Dilfer but lets look at the stats. Completed 56% of his passes, 73.9 passer rating and 23/20 touchdown to interception ratio and was sacked at least once in every game. But in the playoffs, Eli only threw one interception with six touchdowns. Two of the four games he had a passer rating over 115 compared to only one game during the regular season. Long story short, the dream is over for the other Manning. Not just because of his staggering ability to be inconsistent but last year the Giants defense saved him like gangbanger finding Jesus; got him off the streets but still not a model citizen. The injuries to the defense will be too much to overcome and the Giants will be only as good as their defense.

16. Pittsburg Steelers

Here’s why the Steelers won’t make the playoffs; offensive and defensive line. The offensive line went through a major overhaul during the offseason. Big Ben is going to feel the heat this year from hard blitzing defenses like the Colts, Jags, Chargers, Cowboys and Titans. If he goes down at any point of the season, how confident would you be handing the team over to Byron Leftwich? I would be at about a three. Leftwich has seen better days and Big Ben is going to be banged up this year. I can almost hear Johnny Utah screaming at Big Ben “This is your F’n wake-up call man,” because this will be by far his weakest Steelers team. He will be scrambling a lot which will take away the deep ball. And just to show how weak they are on the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers signed Orpheus Roye. Any defensive player released from the Browns should be sign that he isn’t that good. The linebackers are often hurt. This will force Troy Polamalu to play more like a linebacker and less like the best safety in the league. I’m thinking 8-8 or 9-7 for the Steelers this year. There are just too many question marks surrounding the offense and defense against a tough schedule. Now this might sound exactly like the Cleveland Browns. But the Browns have the ability on offense to never be out of a game. In order for the Steelers to win they have to be in control of the game. I just don’t see the Steelers being in control of many games.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

Bodhi can explain the Eagles better than me; “Life sure has a sick sense of humor.” The Eagles have a weak schedule and look great on paper. Brian Westbrook is explosive duel threat out the backfield. Sheldon Brown, Asante Saumeul and Lito Sheppard should hold down the secondary. But they don’t play well at home, can’t stop the run and McNabb is finished in Philadelphia. He’s heading into his 10^th season, hasn’t been healthy since the 2004 Super Bowl, and doesn’t have a wide receiver threat. The biggest problem with McNabb is that running QBs have a shelf life of 5-7 years. It is very difficult for a running QB to make the transition to a pocket QB. I strongly believe that this will be Donovan McNabb’s last year as an Eagle. There is a reason why the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb two years ago. Excluding the Cowboys, the teams in the NFC East are pretty much equal. 9-7 won’t be enough to get into the playoffs this year. So Eagles’ fans burn your #5 jerseys and be prepared to boo. It is going to be one of those seasons that is frustrating because the playoffs will be just out of sight.