Short and sweet...unless you're the Rams

I’m keeping things short and simple this Friday. I’m working on two pretty large columns right now. One is on the current state of the NFL and will be out tomorrow. The other one is on the NCAA and will be out Sunday night/Monday morning. So here are this weeks winners in BOLD CAPS.

DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Three things will happen this week:

1. We will see the Broncos gain 600 yards on offense
2. We will see just how bad the Broncos defense really is
3. We will see the Kansas City Chiefs lose again

CLEVELAND BROWNS at Cincinnati Bungals (-3.5)
This is a must win for the Browns and it is the only reason why the Browns will win. Well that and they are playing the Bungals.

HOUSTON TEXANS at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
I know the Jags beat the Colts last week and the Texans haven’t won yet. But 7 points is a lot to give up when your defense is giving up 300 yards a game.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at New York Jets (-1.5)
The Jets have no running game, Brett Farve is going to be chucking up INTs, and the defense can’t defend the pass. I guess making the Jets the favorite is logical.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-5)
The Saints might win the game but they aren’t beating Vegas. The Saints haven’t won a game by more than 5 points and the 49ers have showed they got a lot of fight in them.

Atlanta Falcons at CAROLINA PANTHERS (-6.5)
I want to pick Atlanta because the Panthers can’t stop the run. But the Falcons won’t be able to stop Steve Smith. In the end, not having a playmaker downfield will be the difference.

Minnesota Vikings at TENNESSEE TITANS (-3)
I was sold on the Titans before the season but now that they have a two game lead on the Colts; I’m Ed McMahon sold. This is the one team in the league I wish was my team. I would take this defense and Jeff Fisher every week; even if they had Tavaris Jackson at QB.

Green Bay Packers at TAMPA BAY BUCCANNERS (-1)
Aaron Rodgers didn’t like the Cowboys defense and isn’t going to like Bucs either. And if you thought the Bucs said “F running” last week, wait until this week. Not having Harris putting the fear of God into subpar receivers is going to be the reason why the Packers lose.

BUFFALO BILLS (-8) at St. Louis Rams
I would pick the Bills -17 against the Rams. Hell, even Rams players are starting to openly say that they don’t want to be a Ram. My only advice for the Rams is to make sure a medic and a defibrillator are near by for Trent Green.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders
And there goes another one of my sleeper picks. I hate you Al Davis.

Washington Redskins at DALLAS COWBOYS (-11)
It is going to be damn near impossible to beat the Cowboys at home this year.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) at Chicago Bears
I think this is make or break week for the Eagles. If they win, it probably means McNabb and Westbrook lived to see another week. If they lose, it means McNabb and/or Westbrook has a bed next to Trent Green. More importantly, if the Eagles lose; this could be the game that costs them a spot in the playoffs.

BALTIMORE RAVENS at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
I don’t like Flacco or really anyone on the Ravens offense beside Ray Rice. But this is a bad week for the Steelers to be playing the Ravens. Not having the one-two at running back means Big Ben is going to feel the pain.

Last Week — 9-7

Overall — 29-18

Next Week or Next Year: Your Choice Romeo

I wrote a column this morning about what I think is wrong with the Browns. How what’s really wrong with the Browns is that they were playing like “the winners” instead of playing like “the upsets”. To make a long story short, I wanted to write something that was serious, heartfelt and moving. Instead it ended up resembling a Dick Vermeil postgame speech on meth. It was allover the place and to be honest—in the end—it didn’t even make sense to me. So I’m not posting it and going to leave the good writing to Terry Pluto for now on. But I will explain what’s really wrong with the Browns and what I meant by how they are playing like “the winners” when they should be playing like “the upsets”. Before I get to the Bad News Browns, I’m going to talk about the Good News Browns.

The Good News Browns

The defense? Yes…the defense! Looking back to week 1, I think it is fair to say that the Browns defense wasn’t that bad; the Cowboys offense was just that good. This is the second week in a row the Cowboys have destroyed a good defense.

Last week, you could have said the Browns defense didn’t look so bad because of the weather. But this week, the Browns held two solid running backs to only 3.4 yards. They picked off Flacco twice and didn’t allow a passing touchdown. These past two weeks the defense has come up huge. Unfortunately, their play has been overshadowed by…

The Bad News Browns

Okay so here is what I meant by the Browns playing like “the winners” instead of playing like “the upsets”. They are playing like they expect to win the game and they expect to be winning the entire game. Some teams, like the Patriots and Cowboys, can—but more importantly—are built to play like this. They go into each game knowing that the plan is to start out running the football to control the clock early, then start passing towards the end of the first quarter and most of the second. Then run the ball some more and control the ball with short slants and outs to the tight end. The problem is that even though the Browns defense is better; it is far from lights out. And you can’t play this style of “winner” football without a highly dependable defense.

Instead the Browns should be playing like they did last year; playing like “the upset”. Remember the creativity in the Browns offense last year? You want to know why it was so creative last year and so predictable this year? Well last year the Browns weren’t supposed to do a damn thing so they had nothing to lose calling play action passes to a streaking Braylon Edwards, 60 yards downfield on first down. So far this year, they have been playing conservative because Romeo doesn’t want to take chances on loosing the game. But by doing so, he has handcuffed himself from taking chances on winning the game.

Bottom line, the Browns can play Johnny Utah at QB and it won’t make a difference. Until they stop planning for a win and start playing like they have nothing to lose; it’s never going to get better. Because the only thing we ever “plan on” in Cleveland is another long season.

NFL Week 3: Tussin and Turning

The Browns lost on Sunday, I got sick on Monday and I lost power on Tuesday. A terrible start to the week but it’s all about how you finish. So with the help of virgin DayQuil daiquiris and Robitussin rum runners I’m back close to 100%. More importantly I’m ready for week 3. Week 3 in the NFL is the make or break week. This is when teams show their true colors. Are they playoff caliber? Or are they playing for the rights to Joe McKnight? Excluding the NFC/AFC West and the NFC North, this is the week the Pearl Jam’s separate themselves from the Jonas Brothers.

But there is something weird about this week. Every home team (minus Dallas) is favored to win. I don’t know how this happened and I don’t know if this will ever happen again. This is going to be the week of the upsets or the week Vegas rakes it in. If I am the handicapper at Caesars or MGM; I’m sacrificing my first born to the gambling Gods, chasing Pepto-Bismol with liquid morphine and waiting for the all-clear signal Tuesday morning. And just to air on the side of caution, I’ve cleared out my desk and put my resume on Monster. Because this week has upset, hangover high and “we’re only better than the crappy teams we’ve played so far” written all over it. My advice would be to stay away from nearly every game this week. But if you got the itch, here is how to scratch it. As always the winners are in ALL CAPS BOLD.

Kansas City Chiefs at ATLANTA FALCONS (-5.5)
The Chiefs are on a mission to get Joe McKnight first overall. But this week their goal is to let Michael Turner break his own Atlanta Falcon’s record and the NFL single game rushing record. Last week the Chiefs gave up a total of 300 yards on the ground to a team with three solid running backs. The Falcons only have one but it he is better than those three right now (Note: McFadden won’t be the next Barry Sanders; somebody will be the next McFadden). So it isn’t a stretch to think The Burner has a chance to break both records against the Kansas City Cant’s.

OAKLAND RAIDERS at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
You could substitute both of these teams for the Cleveland Indians in the movie Major League. Lane Kiffin is basically out of a job if he loses another game badly…or just loses. The Bills have been mediocre at best since Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas left, resulting in their owners trying to relocate the team to Toronto. Both teams are playing for something and both teams have something to prove. I think the Bills will win this game but I don’t think by 9.5 points. I really have no logic behind this pick except that Trent Edwards can’t play like Peyton Manning every week.

Houston Texans at TENNESSEE TITANS (-5)
I do have some logic behind this game; it’s called the Titans’ defense. The Texans couldn’t move the ball against the Steelers and won’t move the ball against the Titans. I actually think this spread is too light. When is Vegas going to realize the Titans are in the top five in the league? My guess is when they are playing deep into January.

Cincinnati Bungals at NEW YORK GIANTS (-13.5)
(Vomiting into a trashcan because I can’t believe the F’n Giants’ schedule is so weak that it is making the Giants look good) Okay…(vomiting because I just heard another rant on how confident Eli looks after winning a Super Bowl). Okay…(vomiting again thinking about Chris Berman talking about The GMEN). Okay…(F it…I’m just going to move on so I can stop vomiting).

ARIZONA CARDINALS at Washington Redskins (-3)
I don’t know what to make the Redskins. They look terrible. They’ve play terrible. But I’m just not sure they are terrible. The opposite can be said for the Cardinals. They look good. They’ve played good. But I’m just not sure. This is the week we find out about both of these teams. If the Cardinals blowout the Redskins; the Redskins stink. If the Redskins keep it close; the Redskins are better than I thought. If the Redskins win outright; well then the Cardinals play in the NFC West.

Miami Dolphins at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-12.5)
This is a lot of points for the Pats to cover. Thankfully Joey Porter decided to play the role of Clubber Lang and piss off Rocky. But unlike Rocky III¸ the Dolphins got handled the last time they played the Pats. So I’m going with the Pats because A) you don’t make the Pats mad, B) they haven’t lost a regular season game since 2006 and C) Belichick still has tape on Pennington and D) the tape on Pennington doesn’t matter because the Dolphins suck.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at Chicago Bears (-3)
This is a “prove it” game. But it is also a redemption game. Brian “DUI” Griese is looking to prove to the Bears that he is better than Orton and redeem himself as a starting QB in the process. If the Bears would have been able to hold the Panthers last week, I would have gone with the Bears without even looking at the line. But since the line is close, both teams rely on their running backs and defenses to get the job done; I’m going with the points.

CAROLINA PANTHERS at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The Panthers have been on a roll and now they get Steve Smith back. Yet somehow they aren’t favored to win? This line I don’t understand. I like the move to Gus Frerotte at QB but I don’t the Vikings without AP. Next week when AP is back and the Vikings have a QB that can actually make a decision, I’ll be back on the bandwagon. But you can’t give a 2-0 team that is getting back their best wide receiver 3.5 points against an 0-2 without their best player.

St. Louis Rams at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-9.5)
The only question surrounding this game is; can the Seahawks cover? Even though Hasselborg is clinically dead, the Rams are out to prove that they will be getting the first pick in the draft—not the Chiefs. So they are going to suck it up and be extra sucky this week.

Detroit Lions at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4)
Well leave it to the Lions to prove my playoff pick wrong…or will they? Two back alley abortions in a row for Lions make me really want to pick them this week. But I just can’t after they gave up against the Packers. Maybe this is the week the Lions try to stay alive but more than likely this is the week they pack it in. If they don’t start winning soon, Kitna is going to steal his own luggage to get out of Detroit.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at Denver Broncos (-5.5)
I’m still not sold on the Broncos. Watching them play last week, you just knew they were going to win. And I know the Saints blew it last week. But 5.5 points? Really? The Broncos showed last week that they are the Browns of last year. They play shootout football because their defense can’t stop teams built to score and score quickly. That’s why they went for two. Well this week will be a mirror image of last week. If they win outright, it won’t be by much.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Put the Eagles on the O’Reilly Factor because I’m not buying it. The Cowboys, once again, tried to lose the game with penalties but the Eagles would have none of it. I’m also not buying into the McNabb factor. He looked horrible in the 4^th quarter. The only thing I hate about this game is that Steelers are going to start out 3-0 and they are going to be tough to catch. God I hate both of these teams. I hope it goes into overtime and they tie.

Jacksonville Jaguars at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5)
The Jaguars stink on both sides of the ball. Any rust that was still on Peyton Manning’s arm is gone this week. Plus I’ll take the Colts at home any time, against any team—just as long as it is not the Pats.

CLEVELAND BROWNS at Baltimore Ravens (-2)
All I’m saying about this game is; if the Browns lose, I’m rooting for the Steelers, buying a portrait of Art Model and cutting off the sleeves to all my hoodies. A reverse jinx might be the only way to solve this season.

Sunday Night

DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) at Green Bay Packers
Turns out I may have been wrong about Rogers. I’m still on the fence about him. But if he pulls this game out of his ass, the Packers will be the team to beat in the NFC. I should have factored in Brett Farve on the cover of Madden in my preseason predictions. But up until now there hasn’t been a precedent set for a reverse Madden jinx. I’m going with Cowboys though because I just can’t say no to T.O.

Monday Night

New York Jets at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-9)
This is the week the Chargers get back on track and the Jets go down the tube. But what the hell do I know? I’m 0-3 on Monday Night games.

Last Week — 10-5 (Ravens/Texans did not play)

Overall — 20-11